Analysis: The Challenges Posed To Airlines & Airports By Hurricane Season

As we edged ever closer to summer, many people started to get excited about their summer vacations. Summer 2024 is expected to be extremely busy and exceed the numbers seen pre-pandemic in 2019. However, many overlook the fact that June 1 also marks the start of the Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. Over 97% of all subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occur between June 1 and November 30.

The peak of hurricane season is between mid-August and late October, which is the time when significant storms can disrupt travel and force airports to close. With that in mind, we will examine how airports and airlines deal with tropical cyclones and hurricanes. Before we get into that, though, let’s first define what tropical storms and hurricanes are and what we can expect to see for the 2024 season.

Tropical storms and hurricanes

Tropical storms and hurricanes are rotating, organized cyclones of clouds and thunderstorms that form over tropical and subtropical water. Both tropical storms and hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere rotate in a counterclockwise direction and are defined by the following criteria:

• Tropical depression: A tropical depression is a cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.
• Tropical Storm: A tropical storm is a cyclone with winds between 38 and 73 mph.
• Hurricanes: A hurricane is a cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. In the Pacific and Indian oceans, hurricanes are called “typhoons.”
• Major Hurricane: A major hurricane is a cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 11 mph or higher.

What to expect for the 2024 hurricane season

Based on records kept during the last 30 years, the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico average 14 named storms each season. Of these, seven are hurricanes, and three are major hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

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For the 2024 hurricane season, experts at the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United Kingdom’s Met Office (UKMO) predict an above-average season.

Because of warm sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the current El Niño, they are expecting 20 named storms, of which nine will be hurricanes and four will be major hurricanes. In 2020, we had 30 named storms, so the 20 named storms for the 2024 season are a distinct possibility.

When speaking about the 2024 prediction with USA Today, University of Pennsylvania meteorologist Michael Mann said:

“We’ve seen many hyperactive seasons over the past decade, and in just about all cases, like our prediction for this year, the activity is substantially driven by ever-warmer conditions in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.”

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Storm names for the 2024 season

For the 2024 hurricane season, the names of the storms will be the same ones used for the 2018 hurricane season, except for Francine and Milton. Instead, the names will be replaced by Florence and Michael. The 2024 hurricane names start with the first storm of the season.

How airports handle hurricanes

As the earth’s surface continues to heat, thanks to global warming, the chance of having more severe weather events like hurricanes increases. Airport managers are responsible for securing not only the airport and its surroundings but also that of airport workers and passengers.

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In the United States, airports on the East Coast and those along the Gulf of Mexico are more susceptible to hurricanes and the chaos and destruction they cause. Five things airport managers need to do if it looks like they will be impacted by a hurricane are:

• Secure the airport and surrounding areas: Move all support vehicles to safe locations and tie down things that might need additional support during high winds.
• Mitigate flooding damage: Ensure that all drains are free of obstructions and place sandbags in strategic locations to divert water. Unplug any electrical items and, if possible, store them in a flood-free, safe area
• Communications: While all airports want to remain open as long as it is safe, it is essential to be in constant communication with government authorities, airlines, and emergency first responders.
• Have a plan: Hurricanes don’t just happen without a warning, so track the storm and practice disaster drills so that everyone knows what they need to do during the storm.
• Don’t wait until the last minute: Be prepared to shut the airport down once winds exceed 40mph. In many cases, airports will anticipate the storm and cease operations long before its outer bands arrive.

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With 2023 set to be a big year for hurricanes, we take a look at how the FAA is preparing.

How do airlines prepare for hurricanes?

Airline operation centers constantly monitor the weather and know the impact tropical storms can have. To protect passengers, crews and aircraft, planners will decide when to stop flying in and out of airports in the storm’s path. If a storm is approaching, airlines will increase the number of flights from airports likely to be affected.

Most airlines in the United States operate hubs and spokes, with large airports acting as the hub and smaller regional airports the spoke routes.

If a hub airport is forced to cease operations due to a tropical storm, it can have a knock-on effect that can last for several days.

Airports that are most likely to be closed or have flights diverted are listed below from worst to best.

1. Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)
2. New York LaGuardia Airport (LGA)
3. John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK)
4. Houston George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH)
5. Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA)
6. Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW)
7. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL)
8. Philadelphia International Airport (PHL)
9. Boston Logan International Airport (BOS)
10. Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI)

Other airports that could close because of a hurricane are Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers, Charlotte, and New Orleans.

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Buy travel insurance

If you are flying to or from any of the above airports during hurricane season, you must keep a close eye on the weather and have a backup plan. Because many trips, and especially vacations, are planned and booked months in advance, always purchase travel insurance for extra peace of mind.